Page 12 - NBIZ October 2022

The downturn associated with the Global Financial (+3,600), construction (+2,500), wholesale trade (+2,400),
Crisis (’08-’09) cost the region 121,000 jobs peak to trough manufacturing (+2,200), energy (+2,000), and retail
or 4.6 percent of the pre-recession employment. Once the (+1,500).
recovery began, Houston recouped the job losses in 22 In addition to the job losses in public education, Houston
months. In both instances, Houston’s rising oil prices and saw minor losses in private education services (-1,000 jobs),
a drilling boom accelerated the recovery. restaurants and bars (-800 jobs), and other services (-400).
The July employment report shows that construction Commercial
finally recouped its pandemic job losses. Only six sectors
How would a downturn impact Houston? have yet to recover completely. Those sectors and the jobs Glass & Glazing
To paraphrase the warning on most invest ment still missing are real estate (300), information (400), hotels
prospect uses, past performance is no guar antee of future (2,200), other services (4,400), energy (7,600), and manu-
results. That holds true for economic downturns as well. facturing (9,100). With the next employment report, TWC SOLUTIONS
The path in and out of the next recession might look quite will likely report real estate and information have fully
different from the one trodden in the past. But this is what recovered. Hotels and other services will likely recover by We Take Care of
would most likely happen: the end of the year. Energy and manufacturing may never
Growth falters and job seekers have less incentive return to pre-pandemic levels of employment.
to move to Houston. Population growth slows. Weaker With the July employment report, payroll employ-
population growth reduces the demand for housing ment in Houston topped 3,267,000, well above the previ- Your Glass
and apartment rents and home prices stabilize. In a few ous peak of 3,207,900 reached in November ’19. Houston
locales, prices decline. Consumers worried about their has achieved that feat without a recovery in energy or
financial futures postpone major purchases like automo- manufacturing. N
biles, furniture, and appliances. Businesses, to conserve
cash, postpone major purchases and investment decisions.
Property values continue to rise but eventually flatten as PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT, METRO HOUSTON
market realities catch up to appraisals. With business and
consumer spending down, sales tax collections taper off.
Over the past thirty years, the typical (i.e., non-COVID)
downturn in Houston has been mild (no greater than a
4.6 percent employment loss) and lasted six to eighteen 281-353-1100
months. Let’s hope the next downturn is a typical one.
www.SpringGlass.net

LOCAL JOB GROWTH CONTINUES
Metro Houston created 900 jobs in July ’22, according to
the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC). This bucks a near
40-year trend for the month. In a typical July, the region loses
15,000 to 20,000 jobs, with the losses concentrated in gov-
ernment (i.e., public education) as schools are closed for the Source: Texas Workforce Commission
summer. This July saw the loss of 19,000 government
jobs, but those losses were more than offset by sig- September 2022 Economy at a Glance ©2022,
nificant gains in other sectors of the economy. Greater Houston Partnership. Clara Richardson and
All but a handful of sectors added Patrick Jankowski contributed to Economy at a Glance.
jobs in July. The largest gains
occurred in health care and
social assistance (+4,100 jobs),
professional, scientific,
and technical services

12 NBIZ ■ October 2022