Page 13 - NBIZ August 2021
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FIGURE 2
San Antonio Hotel Market Forecast
2019 2020 2021F 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F
Occupancy 66% 40% 53.5% 61% 64% 65% 65.5%
ADR $115 $88 $100 $108 $112 $114 $116
RevPAR $75 $35 $53.50 $66 $72 $74 $76
Source: Kalibri Labs, STR, McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC
resulted in an overall Revenue Per from STR Inc. and Kalibri Labs, effects of both occupancy and ADR.
Available Room (RevPAR) decline of a survey of the hotel members of The resulting forecast for RevPAR
$40 or -53%. the San Antonio Hotel & Lodging shows an increase from $35 in 2020
Occupancy at upper-priced Association, and the economic to $53.50 in 2021 and $66 in 2022.
hotels was hit the hardest, followed analysis of the impact of Covid-19. The forecast continues to show gains
by mid-priced hotels, with lower- The above table shows the from $72 in 2023 to $76 in 2025.
priced (economy) hotels being the occupancy, ADR and RevPAR for
least impacted. For ADR, it was 2019 and 2020 (actual) and 2021 Summary
just the opposite with upper-priced through 2025 (forecast). The Covid-19 pandemic created
hotels being impacted the least Thanks to the strong leisure an unprecedented decline in the
and lower-priced hotels losing the demand generated by its many hotel industry in 2020. However, San
most rate. Overall, upper-priced tourist attractions, San Antonio Antonio weathered the storm and,
hotels experienced the most loss in has experienced a monthly increase thanks to its tourism industry, is
profitability, which is measured by in occupancy and ADR in 2021, recovering more quickly than other
RevPAR. The above table shows the averaging 49% and $90 respectively Texas markets. With the return of
percent change in occupancy, ADR, through April 2021. With stronger business and convention activity, San
and RevPAR for 2020 compared to leisure demand over the summer Antonio is expected to reach its new
2019. months and convention activity in the normal between 2023 and 2025. N
Another factor that affects hotel fall, this trend is expected to continue.
performance is the amount of new As indicated in the above table, McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC
supply added to the market. Luckily, occupancy is forecast to increase Randy McCaslin, CEO, and Patrick
there were only a few new hotels from 40% in 2020 to 53.5% in 2021 and McCaslin, COO, are the Co-Founders
under construction in San Antonio 61% in 2022. Then, with economic of McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC.
when Covid-19 hit. All the hotels factors returning to a more normal Combined the McCaslin’s have
continued construction, but the pattern in 2023, occupancies will more than 50 years of professional
opening dates were often delayed continue to recover to 64% in 2023, experience in the hospitality
due to the pandemic. In total, there 65% in 2024, and stabilizing near pre- industry. In an effort to provide
were only about 300 new hotel Covid levels at 65.5% in 2025. much-needed assistance to hotels
rooms added in 2020 with 592 rooms ADR is estimated to increase from that have become distressed as a
delayed to 2021 and 1,039 rooms $88 in 2020 to $100 in 2021 and result of the Covid-19 pandemic,
delayed to 2022. The good news is $108 in 2022. As economic factors McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC has
that, once these rooms are open, very become more certain in 2023, ADR is created a unique array of services
little new supply will be added over estimated to return to a more normal to assist with forecasting and
the next few years, allowing the San growth pattern from 2023 through planning for the challenging road
Antonio market to recover sooner. 2025 reaching just above the pre- ahead and some funding options
The forecast of the San Antonio Covid level at $116 in 2025. through strategic partnerships.
MSA hotel market is based on a RevPAR is a measure of More information can be found on
combination of historical data profitability for a hotel, combining the McCaslinHotelConsulting.com.
NBIZ ■ August 2021 13
