Page 13 - NBIZ August 2021
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                                         San Antonio Hotel Market Forecast

                          2019         2020        2021F        2022F        2023F        2024F        2025F

          Occupancy       66%          40%         53.5%         61%          64%          65%          65.5%
          ADR             $115         $88          $100         $108         $112         $114         $116

          RevPAR          $75          $35         $53.50        $66          $72           $74          $76

        Source: Kalibri Labs, STR, McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC

        resulted in an overall Revenue Per   from STR Inc. and Kalibri Labs,     effects of both occupancy and ADR.
        Available Room (RevPAR) decline of   a survey of the hotel members of    The resulting forecast for RevPAR
        $40 or -53%.                         the San Antonio Hotel & Lodging     shows an increase from $35 in 2020
           Occupancy at upper-priced         Association, and the economic       to $53.50 in 2021 and $66 in 2022.
        hotels was hit the hardest, followed   analysis of the impact of  Covid-19.    The forecast continues to show gains
        by mid-priced hotels, with lower-    The above table shows the           from $72 in 2023 to $76 in 2025.
        priced (economy) hotels being the    occupancy, ADR and RevPAR for
        least impacted. For ADR, it was      2019 and 2020 (actual) and 2021     Summary
        just the opposite with upper-priced   through 2025 (forecast).              The Covid-19 pandemic created
        hotels being impacted the least        Thanks to the strong leisure      an unprecedented decline in the
        and lower-priced hotels losing the   demand generated by its many        hotel industry in 2020. However, San
        most rate. Overall, upper-priced     tourist attractions, San Antonio    Antonio weathered the storm and,
        hotels experienced the most loss in   has experienced a monthly increase   thanks to its tourism industry, is
        profitability, which is measured by   in occupancy and ADR in 2021,      recovering more quickly than other
        RevPAR. The above table shows the    averaging 49% and $90 respectively   Texas markets. With the return of
        percent change in occupancy, ADR,    through April 2021. With stronger   business and convention activity, San
        and RevPAR for 2020 compared to      leisure demand over the summer      Antonio is expected to reach its new
        2019.                                months and convention activity in the   normal between 2023 and 2025. N
           Another factor that affects hotel   fall, this trend is expected to continue.
        performance is the amount of new       As indicated in the above table,   McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC
        supply added to the market. Luckily,   occupancy is forecast to increase   Randy McCaslin, CEO, and Patrick
        there were only a few new hotels     from 40% in 2020 to 53.5% in 2021 and   McCaslin, COO, are the Co-Founders
        under construction in San Antonio    61% in 2022. Then, with economic    of McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC.
        when Covid-19 hit. All the hotels    factors returning to a more normal   Combined the McCaslin’s have
        continued construction, but the      pattern in 2023, occupancies will   more than 50 years of professional
        opening dates were often delayed     continue to recover to 64% in 2023,   experience in the hospitality
        due to the pandemic. In total, there   65% in 2024, and stabilizing near pre-  industry. In an effort to provide
        were only about 300 new hotel        Covid levels at 65.5% in 2025.      much-needed assistance to hotels
        rooms added in 2020 with 592 rooms     ADR is estimated to increase from   that have become distressed as a
        delayed to 2021 and 1,039 rooms      $88 in 2020 to $100 in 2021 and     result of the Covid-19 pandemic,
        delayed to 2022. The good news is    $108 in 2022. As economic factors   McCaslin Hotel Consulting, LLC has
        that, once these rooms are open, very   become more certain in 2023, ADR is   created a unique array of services
        little new supply will be added over   estimated to return to a more normal   to assist with forecasting and
        the next few years, allowing the San   growth pattern from 2023 through   planning for the challenging road
        Antonio market to recover sooner.    2025 reaching just above the pre-   ahead and some funding options
           The forecast of the San Antonio   Covid level at $116 in 2025.        through strategic partnerships.
        MSA hotel market is based on a         RevPAR is a measure of            More information can be found on
        combination of historical data       profitability for a hotel, combining the

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