Page 14 - NBIZ June2021

Additionally, there are not enough vaccines to hasten THE GLOBAL IMPACT
global immunity. Wealthy nations, like Bahrain, Canada,
Israel, and the U.S., have led the world in vaccination rates, Last May, when the Partnership released Global Hous-
measured in shots per 100 people. Those rates still fall ton: Insights & Analysis into a Post-COVID World, the
below the level needed for herd immunity, which experts put outlook for the global economy looked quite bleak. Growth,
at around 70 percent. Poorer nations like Armenia, Congo, employment, trade, and foreign direct investment (FDI)
Honduras, and Niger, which lack the financial resources, were expected to plummet.
a well-developed healthcare infrastructure, or both, have
vaccinated only a fraction of their populations. Around 1.6 0 The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasted global
billion vaccine doses have been delivered worldwide as of gross domestic product (GDP) would shrink 6.4 to 9.7
mid-May. That is about 20 doses for every 100 people. Some percent or by $5.8 to $8.8 trillion due to the virus.
countries, however, have yet to administer a single dose.
0 The ADB also expected upwards of 240 million full-time
payroll jobs would be lost.
Na ons with the Highest Vaccina on Rates*
Rate/100 Rate/100
Na on Na on 0 The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicted
People People
Israel 62.9 Austria 36.9 merchandise trade would decline 13 to 32 percent.
Aruba 56.2 Italy 34.5 0 The United Nations Conference on Trade and
Mongolia 55.8 Portugal 34.5 Development (UNCTAD) forecasted global FDI would
Hungary 51.8 Lithuania 34.2 contract 30 to 40 percent.
Bahrain 51.5 Poland 33.6
Canada 50.6 Netherlands 33.5 One year later, the results are in, and the downturn was
Curacao 50.1 Estonia 32.8 not as bad as expected for GDP and trade, but it was worse
United States 48.6 Czechia 32.2 than expected for employment and investment.
Uruguay 45.2 Greece 30.7 0 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated
Finland 41.3 Slovenia 30.3 global output shrunk only 3.3 percent, 4.7 percent in the
*defined as having received at least one dose advanced economies and 2.2 percent in the emerging
Source: Our World in Data
market and developing economies.

0 The International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates
Health officials across the world have called upon that the equivalent of 255 million full-time jobs were
wealthier nations to share their vaccine supplies. A global lost, the damage measured by hours not worked in 2020
organization, COVAX, has arisen to ensure equitable compared to Quarter 4 in 2019. The losses were four
vaccine access for all nations. Some officials, including times worse than during the 2009 global financial crisis.
U.S. President Joe Biden, have suggested waiving intellec-
tual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines. Such a 0 The WTO estimates global merchandise trade fell only
waiver could remove obstacles for ramping up production 5.3 percent in 2020.
in developing countries. But other challenges remain such
as insufficient materials, a lack of manufacturing facilities, 0 Global (FDI) fell 42 percent in 2020, from $1.5 trillion in
and weak quality control measures for developing coun- 2019 to $859 billion according to UNCTAD. Such a low
tries to successfully produce and administer the vaccine. level was last seen in the 1990s, and it is more than 30
Despite these headwinds, global economic recovery is percent below the investment trough that followed the
underway. This bodes well for Houston, whose fortunes are 2008-2009 global financial crisis.
tied as much to the global economy as they are to the U.S.
economy and the oil and gas industry. The lockdowns and travel restrictions had the greatest
The recovery is being led by the world’s largest econ- impact on countries heavily dependent on tourism like Spain
omies, U.S. and China, two nations that have pursued and Greece. Nations geared toward producing goods and
somewhat divergent methods to control the virus. Both exporting merchandise, such as Germany and China, tended
have emphasized mask-wearing, frequent handwashing, to fare better. The U.K. had the additional burden of dealing
social distancing, and mass vaccinations. The U.S. has also with a fallout from its withdrawal from the European Union.
relied on voluntary isolation of infected individuals. But
China has instituted mandatory isolation of patients with U.S. Impact
mild to moderate symptoms, hospitalized those with severe This time last year the outlook for the U.S. was equally
symptoms, and established strict quarantines in cities and dire. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported U.S.
regions soon after outbreaks were identified. GDP had shrunk 5.0 percent, and the consensus among

14 NBIZ ■ June 2021